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Exit polls, 2nd phase polling in AP

A small note before going forward is that the Election commission of India has banned the exit polls this time and no media channel is entitled to give the reports on the number of seats that a party could win.

So this is simply a collection of polling pattern expressed by some eminent political scholars put together.

The statement on Telangana made by YS Rajasekhara Reddy was thought to play a big role in the second phase of the election but some how it seemed to go past the views of the public. But the thing that’ll have an impact on the voters is the incident that happened in Tirupathi at a Hotel where PRP leader chiranjeevi was resting after a visit to Tirumala. Police came to check the room of Chiranjeevi on a allegation made by Congress supporters that money was being distributed by Chiranjeevi to Female voters. When a media channel asked a senior PRP leader on why the ladies were going into Chiru’s room, the answer was that they were fans of Chiru and were just going to have a look at him. On the other side, Karunakar reddy, the Congress candidate for Tirupati Assembly said that Chiru was afraid of Congress and so made a stay in Tirupati along with many non-locals which was against the election code.

There is also a doubt on whether Chiranjeevi would win from Tirupati or not as he would any how leave Tirupati if he wins and keep Palakollu constituency, as said by his daughter and a senior PRP leader . Many of the locals were heard of saying ‘Why should we vote for a person who would not be a person from this constituency or atleast stay in this constituency if he wins later’.

Coming to the party performances in the second phase of polling, the Godavari districts are a strong hold of PRP and they are sure to squeeze votes from both TDP and Congress.

Krishna and Guntur used to be stronghold of Congress before but this time there seems to be a strong competition from TDP. Apart from some constituencies of Kurnool, PRP doesn’t seem to get a lot of seats from the Rayalseema region. Kadapa as usual is a strong hold of Congress which is expected to do well there. However, PRP seem to play a spoilsport in Chittor district which otherwise is a TDP court.

The caste this time seems to play a big role in Andhra than ever before. And the voters too participated in big numbers compared to the first phase. Apart from the state elections, Andhra pradesh is a vital State for INC if it has to think of forming a government in New Delhi.

So all in all, there would be a close call between TDP and Congress with a slight edge to the Ruling party in the second phase.

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27 comments

  1. i have the unbiased..accurate results of polls…tdp is going to sweep polls with its partners…tdp..144…left 13 trs 20..mim 6..cong65..prp..35.bjp 3 others 8…..congress was beaten blue and black..because of high [edited],exhorbitant prices,lawlessness..irresponsible…incompletion of projects..and finally son stroke made inc fatal…..the main weapon with which tdp crushed inc is by cash transfer..iam sorry smita and my other congress frds…next time better luck in 2013

  2. dear friends,you are going to see the power of silent voting, youth and ladies voting,caste voting etc in favour of PRP. Am expecting that PRP will form government and Chiru will become CM. You are underestimating PRP in telangana region also and forgetting BC card also plays its role.

  3. kvmr give correct analysis and that is the result every one expecting for better government

  4. bad news for ysr. mr. vinay, all your expectations will be dashed. you see the attitude of the government machinery and ministers after polls are over. they r all going on vacations to enjoy their ill earned kickbacks money. when the state is having so many problems like power cuts, price rise. water shortage etc, the lackadaisical attitude of the cong cm and ministers need to be condemned. they are not interested to come to work because they wont get any commissions in the work they do now because of election code. such is the attitude of cong leaders. they leave the people to the wind once their work is over. how can you support such a government.. you easily forget the fact that maytas was not there during ncb rule and it was not promoted by babu as was done by ysr for his kickbacks. you r talking of ysr surrendering the govt land to the govt. he has done that because he got a hint that EENADU was going to publish the scam in a day or two. he is not a fool to surrender without any reason.

  5. Guys, Wake UP…. what did congress did all these years and compare with TDP rule (he is Hitech) he got jobs for so many ppl in the state. Human wants are Unlimited…. TDP was best than any other party…. jus think once if congress will come back I am sure it’s all abt correption and [edited] feeling

  6. I believe PRP could play spoilsport with three cornered fight, but could hardly cross 30 seats.
    Overall, my estimate is that Congress : 160-170, GA: 90-100, PRP: 20-40.

    Comparing the earlier chief ministers, YSR has almost been in tune with people and people believe in his credibility, he has shown it in action compared to Naidu who almost took U turn in all of what he told, including telangana issue.

    From the above, it is apparent, YSR deserves a second term, people would be wise enough to accord him needed numbers.

  7. Here is my Gut feel.Phase 2:TDP 60,Congress 40,PRP 30.

  8. Looks like the Voting percentage is increased du to Chiranjeevi
    PRP best case will be getting 120 and Worse case they will get 70, Also looks like TDP+ has edge over Congress and may end up 120 at best case and 90 at worse, Congress will get 100 at best and 70 at worse. I wish PRP + JP form government with support of CPI/M and Rebels

  9. I do agree with kvmr.
    kvmer is almost close to the target.

  10. everybody are agreeing that mahakutami is getting around 90+ in first phase.
    in the second phase PRP has made some gains. Major loss of votes from Congress, as every body’s perception that a particular community who were traditionally congress voters turned to PRP. in majority of seats (except In East and west Godavwary dist) PRP will get some percentage of votes but not seats. so my view is Mahakootami is benefited in 5 to 6 districts, PRP in 2 districts and Cong in 2 to 3 districts. So in the second phase Kutami will get 60+
    Over all score TDP + 150, PRP 40 , Cong 80+

  11. Hey All,

    This is best Election in the History of AP.

    I am following the election for about a year and i think know one will be able to get the magic number.

    I agree with Chiranjeevi( I will King and not King Maker), According to me he will the King and King Maker.

    How?

    In Karnataka last time BJP was the Single largest Party with 96 MLA’s, Congress with 72 Mla’s & JD(S) with 38 Mla’s.

    Kumarswamy of JD(S) was the Chief minster with the support of BJP.

    So he was the King and even the King Maker.
    I think the same will repeat even in AP this Time.

    I can tell you one thing for sure Congress will get 100+, Mahakootami 100+, PRP 80+ , Others 29

    • But the problem here is that it is Andhra pradesh and not Karnataka.
      And your calculations will count to 309+ seats. How many seats are there in AP?

  12. I tend to agree with Vinay, one should not blame YSR for the mistakes of his forefathers, atleast he is trying to rectify the mistakes they have done. I have travelled extensively in rural Andhra and YSR programmes are having a positive impact on the public. Whatever anyone says, YSR has tried his best by introducing various schemes, and let us appreciate that. Unfortunately, in our country winning elections and good work don’t go together. I think PRP has done well in Coastal, Mahakootami in telangana and Congress in Rayalaseema. As congress is present in all the three regions it will be the single largest party!!

  13. Well if we were to apply the rule of law in India, the fact of the matter is ALL the politicians would be in jail and quite a few of the so called NORMAL persons would have joined them! As very few of us follow the law anyway. One needs to be more realistic and practical ( in India and especially in Rayalseema))before we start passing judgements. It was the CM himself, who voluntarily gave up this land, which was NOT acquired by HIM, and without any pressure from the opposition! No sitting CM has ever done that before, that’s the whole point, despite quite a few of them acquiring ill gotten wealth! [EDITED]
    Anyway, let me end this discussion with my predictions for the 2009 elections as per the latest Trends:
    Congress: 110-120, Mahakutami : 85 – 95, PRP: 55-65.

  14. Dear Sriraj

    Your views on the two phases of Andhra elections show you as an unbiased person.But still I beg to differ with you on your second phase analysis.My view is this : Certainly In Krishna and Guntur congress is no match to TDP. This is the ground reality.

    And my request to you is : Can you give your expectations on the winning number of seats of each party in the second phase.Only second phase.It will not violate the EC restrictions since you are giving your expectations only but not Exit Polls.Hope you are obliging.

    Regards
    Altruist

    • I don’t know. Will have to wait and see. But my gut feeling says that there will be serious fight between TDP and Congress (in 2nd phase).First phase will bring a good majority to Kutami. To be frank PRP is out of contention at least this time but it will win quite a few seats in E & W Godavari districts, and some parts of Kurnool and chittor. But I may be wrong. I’m sorry if there are any hardcore PRP fans out there.

  15. We need to accept the fact that AP Media is affiliated to either Congress or TDP, Also most of the news websites like GA, Thatstelugu etc are outrightly affiliated to congress.

    There was structural plan to [edited] PRP by TDP and Congress, they were successful (Example: ROJA, Junior, Jeevitha etc), Also the [edited] and [edited] put their best efforts (Never been before) and most of the places they were successful.

    If you see the first phase – TDP/TRS is gaining but not so much as projected by media, the reason in TRS seat distribution, TRS/CPIM/TDp friendly fights and Rebels — It may be true that in telangana PRP may get as low as 3 to as high as 15, but the fact is there is majority drift of votes (Women and youth) to PRP, However these drift may not be enough to get seats in Telangana.
    But the same case is not true in Uttarandra, looks like PRP winning 15 to 18 of 37 UTTARANDHRA. i.e. they are alsmost 40 to 50% there

    2nd Phase – In Rayala seema – I do not have any solid clue

    but KOSTA has seen dramatic shift on last two days in favor of PRP, also the polling percentage, The increase in polls are by either TDP money transfer or Chranjeevi – Looks like this is due to chiranjeevi, also Women/youth voted to PRP at many places. Example East Gadavari – A week before PRP was lagging i.e they dropped from 14 to 10 out of 18 (Murali mohan spent like hell), but the change is in last two days and Looks like PRP is getting 15+ out of 19, Other than Prakasam and parts of Guntur and Krisha – the same phenomenon visible
    So finally I think PRP is underdog now, they may get any where between 80 to 120 out of 297.

  16. Well Sriraj that’s exactly what I am trying to say about YSR’s character, as a sitting CM he could have easily kept that land but he chose not to, and remember this land was not acquired by himself. it was passed on to him by his dad. Whereas naidu’s wealth has all been acquired after he came into politics. YSR has started so many good projects for the people, let us give him credit where it is due! Instead of trying to dub as a corrupt politician.

    • How can a person being a CM of a state not know that a land belonged to Govt is under his name. Why was he not punished for using the land for so many generations which doesn’t belong to them?
      If it was a normal person, and had he used a single acre that belonged to Govt, he would have been in jail the next day. Why these different rules is all I’m trying to say.

  17. Nobody is beleaved Chandrababu Naidus Rs 2000/- Cash transfer Schems. trend Shows very close fight between Congress & PRP in 2nd Phase . Most of the People Expects ,Congress will form the government again in AP .or it may take support from PRP . TDP has No chances of forming government in AP.

  18. Inspiration ??!! yes inspiration for looting a public company! That’s what Naidu was for Ramalinga Raju! Please check your facts, as per the inquiry Raju has been siphoning off money from Satyam since the past 8 years! YSR became CM only 5 years back, so clearly this looting of money by Raju started when Naidu was the CM. One needs to stop this false propaganda of YSR. Also please compare naidus character with that of YSR.
    YSR has forgiven his owner fathers [edited], he has donated 100s of acres of his family owned land, which sitting CM has ever done that??!! Naidu follows a use and throw policy! whether it is with NTR Sr or Jr. He needs the glamour of balakrishna and NTRJr. for votes, he knows he has nothing much to show. And talking of corruption Naidu a 2 acre farmer before he entered politics, has today declared net assets of 75 crores!!

    • Everyone has their own views Vinay. And since you brought the topic of 100s of acres donated by YSR, let me clarify that the entire land which you are talking about belonged to Govt which he used for so many years. He himself admitted that he didn’t know that fact and so kept under his name.

  19. overall Kutami will get 200* seats and form the government.Once again people are voted for KUTAMI for their better future

  20. if ysr wins again he will sell off tirumala hills also. Secretariat and ttd guest house has become a [edited] under ysr regime. How can u ask to vote for ysr again? He has brought such a [edited] to the state with his family’s [edited] practices. Satyams fall is due to ysrs promotion of maytas through which he earned crores of rupees as kickbacks. From 1994-2004 chandrababu naidu was the inspiration for ramalinga raju, from 2004-2009 ysr is the inspiration for satyam ramalinga raju. there is no law and order, price rise, [edited] of tirumala hills. farmers didnt get seeds and fertilizers in time. they were lathicharged everywhere. the list is endless. so Mr [Edited] you should be [edited] to ask to vote for congress in spite of above cited failures of YSR.

  21. Do not totally agree with that because the trend seems very close fight between Congress & PRP in 2nd Phase and in 1st Phase close fight between Congress & Kootami (not completely TDP). Given the analysis, I think Congress will be close to form government again in AP or it will take a support from PRP or any party other than TDP. In the event of silent movement as said by PRP, you may be surprised to see even PRP forming government but either cases TDP has very small chances of forming government in AP.

  22. YSR needs to come back once again! If Naidu comes he will stop all the projects and this will be bad for AP! YSR is the best CM AP has ever had. Look at all the irrigation projects, health insurance for the poor, housing etc. no one has ever implemented so many projects! Naidu just concentrated on hyderabad! we need to elect YSR as CM atleast for another 5 years then the state will prosper. Naidu is a [edited], he has [edited] the congress party, his father inlaw, and he is now planning to [edited] the people with his false promises! he needs to be taught a lesson, let us all get together and [edited] of politics! Jai Telugu Nadu!

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