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Exit polls Andhra pradesh assembly elections

If you are regular to this site you may have already read the initial report on the two phases of polls in Andhra Pradesh here and here.

Who will win the elections? Who will form the next Government in the state? How many seats will Congress/TDP/PRP win?

As soon as the clock struck 5PM on Wednesday, all media channels were out giving their exit polls on the General elections conducted in India in a long stretch of 5 weeks. The State of Andhra Pradesh had gone to polls for its assembly elections along with the Lok Sabha elections. And according to political pundits, it’s the assembly election that is to be watched for – at least in Andhra Pradesh.

What’s interesting here is that when almost everyone is agreeing that there will be a 3 cornered battle in the state (or at least 2 cornered battle between TDP and Congress), one channel, said to be associated with ruling party in the state went ahead to project their exit polls completely in favour of the Congress party. According to them Congress is well on its way to bag around 180 assembly seats. And about 68 to the Grand alliance and the rest shared between other parties including PRP. While many senior Congress leaders themselves said that they would get somewhere near 110-120 seats, this projection came in as a surprise to one and all. The projections of other sources are in common line with majority of the people according to which the Grand alliance will get 125-130, Congress 90-100, PRP 38 and rest to other smaller parties.

While the first projection may seem strange, what might add to its authenticity is KCR moving towards the NDA even before the exit polls are out. One has to think in this way that KCR had inside information that the Grand alliance did not do well in the polls and so slowly started moving towards the BJP led NDA to achieve his one point agenda and that is to get a separate Telangana state.

Though the exit polls from different sources are different and that too in a big way, there are 3 ways in which the State may head to after May 16th in the order of most possibility to least possibility:

Option 1

The Grand alliance gets a simple majority or falls 5-10 short of the majority, it may seek the help of Independents or ‘do its work’ to form the Government.

Option 2

Neither the Grand alliance nor the Congress get to the magic figure and fall short of it by at least 30-40 seats.  In this case, the most likely happening is the Congress seeking the help of PRP to which PRP may not have a problem, provided congress agree to their conditions.

It’s more likely that PRP will support Congress rather than TDP as it is said that Kapu’s were Congress’s voters before PRP emerged and also there is a deep drift between Kapu and Kamma than between Kapu and Reddy communities.

It’s so sad that castes are playing such big role in forming the Government

Option 3

The Congress gets a simple majority and forms the Government.

So all in all, the exit polls seems to have added more confusion and it only remains to be seen who emerges as the king on May 16.

This report is not associated in any way to the exit polls conducted by Times Now, Headlines today, IBN, Star news or any other network that has done their survey but simply an assessment of the current situation in the state by the Author.

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10 comments

  1. i reckon mahaakootami may get somewhere 160, congress 100 rest of the seats may be shared by prp and individuals

  2. Congress should win at any cost.Y.S.Rajasekhar reddy will become the CM . no doubt in it.
    may GOD bless Y.S.Rajasekhar reddy to become CM for this time also.

  3. lets all put hand to gether for our new CM chandra babu naidu…

  4. I think no one get full majority ……..

    let’s wait another 2 day to get results……………..

  5. Noo Doubt congress wins…

  6. It is so unfortunate that inspite of people of this country being so supportive and expecting for the political system – parties that win non of the political party except Y.S.R in AP have really fulfilled his or her promise to the common man. Atleast Y.S.R to certain extent did initiate some good programmes. I only hope he wins and improves his performance and crubs the level of corruption and also watches his ministers to perform better.

    TDP – C.B.Naidu is a confused man now. He is promising many and all free.Babu where is the money. Don`t expect salaried people to pay for your promises.

  7. NO one should come with cast baseis prp branded with lable of “kapu” mark one SRI jogaiah vetren labeled kapuparty with open publicity 2)the so called fans were thrownout from screen(poorfellows who were redey to task thair lives chirenjeevi totally depended on sri aravind seems nagababu, pavan were not having any rool…….. still wakeup or choose bathroom to cry k.k.rao

  8. Actually I’m surprised seeing these projection on TV yesterday. I thought PRP will get atleast 65 seats, but no one is projecting more than 45 to PRP.

  9. The first option seems to be the happening option. TDP should win comfortably.

    • The first option may seem valid but you never know what is KCR is upto.
      He may throw a surprise to Babu if UPA gets the majority at the center. He is so un-predictable. Isn’t he?

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